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Data for the three main surface global annual average temperature datasets are now available for 2011.

HadCrut3

According to (one of the ) HadCrut3 databases 2011 was the 12th warmest year, with a temperature anomaly of 0.342, behind 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998 and 1997.

The rating for the individual months, compared to the same month in previous years in HadCrut3 is as follows;

January, 15th warmest.

February, 14th warmest.

March, 13th warmest.

April, 11th warmest.

May, 10th warmest.

June, 8th warmest.

July, 9th warmest.

August, 8th warmest.

September, 13th warmest.

October, 13th warmest.

November, 14th warmest.

December, 13th warmest.

 

NasaGiss

According to NasaGiss 2011 was the 9th warmest year with a temperature anomaly of 52. It was cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002 and 1998, although as we have said before such accuracy given the errors of 0.1 deg C in all global temperature datasets are superfluous.

The rating for the individual months, compared to the same month in previous years in NasaGiss is as follows;

January, 10th warmest.

February, 11th warmest.

March, 10th warmest.

April, 5th warmest.

May, 9th warmest.

June, 8th warmest.

July joint warmest along with 2009 and 1998.

August warmest.

September, 9th warmest.

October, 8th warmest.

November, 11th warmest.

December, 8th warmest.

 

Note the warm, record breaking July and August, but compare these months to the same months in the HadCrut3 and Noaa databases, in which they were nothing out of the ordinary for the past decade.

 

Noaa

According to Noaa database  2011 was the 11th was the warmest year, with a temperature anomaly of 0.5112, behind 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998. Note that 2008 was only 0.01 deg C cooler than 2011.

The rating for the individual months, compared to the same month in previous years in Noaa is as follows;

January, 12th warmest.

February, 14th warmest.

March, 12th warmest.

April, 7th warmest.

May, 10th warmest.

June, 7th warmest.

July, 7th warmest.

August, 8th warmest.

September, 8th warmest.

October, 8th warmest.

November, 14th warmest.

December, 12th warmest.

 

Overall, data from 2011 in all three temperature databases continue to display the lack of increase in global annual average temperature since at least 2001. The standstill is now entering its second decade.

In a press statement released 4th January the UK Met Office said that their predictions for 2011 was that it would have a temperature anomaly of 0.44 with a range of 0.28 – 0.60. Once again the Met Office were wrong (if we use the CRU HadCrut3 while we await the Met Office version) as 2011 was 0.1 deg cooler. Note that the range of temperatures offered 0.28 – 0.60 encompasses every year since 1997 with 0.60 being 0.08 higher than the 1998 temperature record. Hardly a good prediction.

I disagree with the statement in the press release: Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Forecasting at the Met Office said: “While 2010 was a record warm year, in 2011 we saw a very strong La Niña which can temporarily cool global temperatures.”

2010 was not a record year, according to the most commonly used version of HadCrut3. 2011 did indeed have a La Nina which cooled the planet. It is an omission on the Met Office’s part not to say that 2010 was an El Nino year that warmed the planet.

The Met Office predicts that 2012 will have a temperature anomaly of 0.480, making it the warmest year after the powerful 1998 El Nino year which had 0.529. However, if 2012 was 0.48 it would not alter the statistics post 2001. Given the errors 2012 would be a continuation of the lack of temperature increase seen in the past decade or so.

 

Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com