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2011 global average temperatures are now available to July, and in some cases to August. With most of the year gone we are beginning to be in a position to tentatively consider what temperatures the rest of the year would have to achieve to make 2011 a record year, or joint record, given the errors of measurement.

The method of ranking months is of course only one way of looking at the data. It is used by some of the data suppliers, for example here.

It provides a way to see if a particular year will be warm due to a general uplift of all months, or a larger increase in just a few months, and how that change relates to the seasons.

 

HadCrut3 is available to July. So far we have this year;

January, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1995, 1992, 1991, 1988.

February, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1995.

March, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1998, 1990.

April, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1998.

May, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998.

June, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1998.

July, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998.

 

NOAA data is available to August.

January, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999, 1998.

February, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995.

March, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998.

April, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2005, 2000, 1998.

May, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1998.

June, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2002, 1998.

July, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2002, 1998.

August, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2001, 1998.

 

NasaGiss is available to August.

January, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1998, 1988, 1981.

February, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1996 (aprox equal), 1995, 1991.

March, cooler than 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2002, 1990.

April, cooler than 2010, 2007, 2005.

May, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2005, 2002, 1998.

June, cooler than 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1998, 1997.

July, cooler than 2009, 1998.

August, cooler than 2006, 2003, 1998.

 

Thoughts on 2011 so far.

Remember that 2010 was touted by some as equal to the record year of 1998. Looking at 2011 data it’s obvious that in HadCrut3 and NOAA data every month, so far this year, has been cooler than its 2010 equivalent. In GISS six out of the eight months so far this year have been cooler than their 2010 counterpart.

In HadCrut3 no month has been in the top 8 years of the past decade or so. Note that I have omitted years that were very nearly equal, yielding a conservative estimate of a month’s position in relation to the same month in previous years.

It is also obvious that NasaGiss whilst having a broadly similar pattern to the other two databases, consistently estimates higher. For example it says that July 2011 was the third warmest on record, whilst HadCrut3 says it was the ninth and NOAA the seventh.

It is very unlikely that 2011 will be anywhere near a record year, although I don’t want to prejudge as the southern hemisphere spring can be very warm. However, even given that, it would require a turnaround in the data not previously seen in the datasets to achieve a record status.

Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com