Skip to content

The GWPF 2019 Temperature Prediction Competition

Andrew Montford

With GWPF readers having trounced the Met Office at predicting temperatures for 2018, it will very interesting to see if you can do just as well for 2019.

So we hereby announce the 2019 HadCRUT temperature prediction competition. Once again, the opportunity is there to win some magnificent prizes: more whisky, and your choice of a book from the growing range of GWPF titles.

Of course the real prize on offer is to do better than the boys in Exeter. The Met Office are again being very aggressive on the warming front. They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.

So will carbon dioxide sweep all before it as they think? Will temperatures creep back further, shoot back up again, or will they keep sliding away? Will El Nino kick in, or will La Nina dominate?  Your guess is probably as good as mine, but – if experience is anything to go by – probably better than the Met Office’s.

To enter, simply fill in the form below. Please make sure to enter just a single number representing the HadCRUT4 global average for 2019, in anomaly format, to two decimal places. The current value is 0.60. In the event of a draw, the judges will pull a name out of a hat.

Good luck!

[Update: The competition is now closed to new entries. The results will be announced at the start of 2020.]