Every year, we invite readers to predict the annual temperature anomaly for the year ahead. It’s a chance for everyone to pit their predictive ability against the Met Office, who also issue a prediction.
Sometimes the wisdom of the Net Zero Watch crowd gets the better of the eggheads of Exeter, and sometimes it doesn’t. That wasn’t going to happen this year, because the submitted predictions were broadly in the same range as the Met Office’s 1.03±0.12°C. The most common prediction was around 1°C. We have a consensus, you might say.
But does a consensus count for anything? It seems not.
Yesterday the Met Office issued its HadCRUT5 anomaly for 2021 and, as the graph below shows, the weather was a clear winner. The anomaly for the year was 0.76°C, the coolest year since 2014.
Only one person got the prediction spot on, and we’ll be in touch shortly to arrange delivery of a bottle of Scotch (or alternative hooch of your choice) and your choice of a book from the GWPF publications library.
And if you didn’t win, fear not, because there is another chance coming in 2022! Once again, the prize is a bottle of Scotch and a GWPF book, with ties decided by drawing names out of a hat.