Cost of Net Zero understated by “hundreds of billions”
Miliband’s Clean Power plan in crisis as wind output projections are slashed
Campaign group Net Zero Watch has claimed vindication in its long-running campaign to get the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and the Climate Change Committee to use credible estimates of renewables cost and performance in its work.
Last night it was revealed that the department has quietly reduced its estimates of offshore and onshore windfarm output by more than a quarter, claiming that this had been prompted by ‘new modelling’.
This latest admission from DESNZ lands at the worst possible moment for Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, who is already under mounting political, industry and public pressure over the credibility of his Clean Power 2030 mission to decarbonise the grid over the next five years:
Wind industry analysts warn his £1.08 billion budget for the upcoming subsidy auction is nowhere near enough to secure the required wind capacity;
The Tony Blair Institute has urged Labour to drop the target entirely for fear it will drive up system costs, weaken reliability and hold back economic growth;
The Ember economist behind Labour’s £300 bill-cutting election pledge has now cast doubt on whether any savings can be delivered;
The UK’s largest energy retailers have told Parliament that even if gas were free by 2030, soaring grid and balancing costs would still leave electricity bills painfully high; and
Polling by More in Common has found that three quarters (75%) of British voters say the government is the most responsible for high household energy bills.
Net Zero Watch director Andrew Montford said:
“DESNZ’s belated admission that it has been using fictional output figures for windfarm output is welcome, but they still have a long way to go. Even their revised figures are far too high, and their implausible cost figures have long since been refuted by hard data.”
Mr Montford points out that all official estimates of the cost of delivering Net Zero are therefore grossly understated.
“If DESNZ, NESO, the OBR and the Climate Change Committee were to use credible figures for windfarm cost and performance, the cost of delivering Net Zero in 2050 would be hundreds of billions of pounds higher. The Net Zero edifice has been built on a foundation of untruths.”
ENDS
NOTES TO EDITOR
1) Telegraph reports the change in output estimates. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/28/ed-miliband-admits-wind-power-less-reliable-than-expected/
2) Net Zero Watch’s campaign includes:
In 2023, we called the estimates “a fairy story”. https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/a-fairy-story-offshore-wind-costs
In September 2024, NZW director Andrew Montford and energy system expert Professor Gordon Hughes wrote to the Permanent Secretary Jeremy Pocklington, pointing out the problems with the DESNZ figures. https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/letter-to-pocklington. We accused DESNZ of “assuming away” the cost of Net Zero by inflating windfarm output estimates.
When no reply was received, NZW director Lord Frost raised the issue with the minister, Lord Hunt. https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/deception-renewables-costs
Only an obfuscatory response was received, and no correction was made (until now). https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/desnz-tacitly-concede-defeat
3) DESNZ’s capital cost figure for offshore windfarms commissioning in 2025 is £1.5m per megawatt. Moray West, the only offshore windfarm that will commission in 2025, has spent £1.6m per megawatt installing its foundations.