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Avoid Like The Plague

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Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill

Sir John Beddington’s speech to the AVOID symposium is quite interesting. He takes a pop at GWPF’s Lord Turnbull, in particular with what he says is a claim that temperatures haven’t gone up for a decade. Beddington seeks to refute this claim with a graph of decadal averages temperatures.

How one would know what has happened to temperatures in the last decade from a figure for the average temperature over 2001-2010 is anybody’s guess. This is probably a form of mathematics to which only the Government Chief Scientific Adviser is privy.

The arguments over sea ice are more interesting. I see the decline in Arctic sea ice and, like Lord Turnbull, am surprised that the extent seems to return to normal over the winter. One would have thought that since the poles are warming as rapidly as we are told, the winter ice recovery would be less each year. I should also mention that I always view discussion of the Arctic without mention of the Antarctic as fairly naked cherry-picking. As we know, the IPCC says Antarctic ice should be in decline too.

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