19 June 2024

Westminster view

It’s particularly quiet at Westminster at the moment, as all the candidates are out in their prospective constituencies campaigning. Nevertheless, there has been plenty of noise emanating from the various national parties as the general election heats up.

Most notably, Reform’s manifesto came out promising to scrap Net Zero altogether - giving voters their first opportunity to vote for a major party who opposes the target. But it’s also clear that this is not going to be a ‘climate’ or ‘Net Zero’ election. As Andy Mayer from the IEA has pointed out, climate change has been declining in saliency to voters. Polling company Ipsos rated ‘Pollution/Environment/Climate Change’ at the bottom of their monthly issue index, with the NHS, Inflation, Economy and Immigration top. Just 3% of the electorate thought it the most important issue, down from 40% when the UK hosted COP26.

This could be an opening for a more rational approach to the subject, but it seems likely that the trend for ever increasing interference in energy markets will continue after this election. A party that wants to change that direction of travel needs to provide a credible route to lower energy prices, greater competition and increased security of supply - and unfortunately we did not get that in any of the manifestos.

Harry

Harry Wilkinson is the head of policy at Net Zero Watch. As always, please don’t reply to this email address, which is not monitored.

The headlines

UK elections

• Reform manifesto

• Claire Coutinho bashes Labour

• Oil industry bashes Labour

• More manifesto analysis

Around the world

• American EV maker files for bankruptcy

• Canada’s small modular nuke making good progress

• US shale output to continue growing

Decarbonisation

• Falling support for Net Zero policy

• UK carbon tax shambles

Etcetera

• Jeremy Clarkson of Net Zero and food security

• Nigel Farage on Net Zero

• BBC smears subsistence farmer as ‘denier’

UK elections

Reform manifesto

Reform’s manifesto appeared, promising the scrapping of Net Zero, small modular nuclear reactors, and a restarting of fracking. ‘A significant moment in British politics’ was how NZW’s Harry Wilkinson described it, but warned that greater detail was needed about how exactly they would get energy prices down for consumers.

Claire Coutinho bashes Labour

The Energy Security Secretary took to the pages of the Telegraph (£) to bash Labour’s energy manifesto noting, correctly, that it would lead to blackouts, and comparing it to New Zealand, where a rash ban on oil and gas exploration has had to be reversed in order to prevent grid meltdown.

Ms Coutinho also noted that Labour’s claim that they could deliver cost savings was based on electricity prices at the height of the Ukraine war.

Oil industry bashes Labour

The oil industry warned that North Sea investment would dry up (£) if a future Labour government followed through on its pledge to axe investment allowances that allow operators to shelter profits from the windfall tax.

More manifesto analysis

Engineer David Turver wrote a detailed review of the manifestos and, like us at NZW, found the establishment parties’ efforts to be dangerously inadequate.

The Institute of Economic Affairs’ chief operating officer and energy analyst, Andy Mayer, reviewed all the major party manifestos and argued that the only certain election outcome was that bills would continue to rise.

Around the world

American EV maker files for bankruptcy

Fisker, a troubled US EV startup, filed for bankruptcy, after slow sales and production issues.

Canada’s small modular nuke making good progress

The first phase of the build of the small modular nuclear reactor in Ontario has been completed on time and on budget.

US shale output to continue growing

Improving technology means that there are several years of output growth ahead.

Decarbonisation

Falling support for Net Zero policy

Pollsters found declining support for an array of decarbonisation policies (£), from frequent-flyer levies, to green product labelling, to nobbling pension funds, to vegan diets and restrictions on meat, to LTNs, to EV subsidies to phasing out gas boilers.

UK carbon tax shambles

A flaw in the design of the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism means that UK renewables generators will be penalised when they export power to the EU.

Etcetera

Jeremy Clarkson (£) explained the ludicrous choices that Net Zero forces upon him in his now world-famous farm in the Cotswolds, and noted the threat that decarbonisation represents to food security.

…perhaps 20 per cent of my farm is not producing any food this year. I know of other farmers who’ve put 60 per cent into environmental schemes. And all of this is tremendous if you are a global warming enthusiast. It frees you up to go on more marches. But what if you want a sandwich?

Farage and Tice on Net Zero

Nigel Farage was interviewed by Together’s Alan Miller on the subject of Net Zero. Separately, Farage described Net Zero as an act of self harm. Reform’s chairman, Richard Tice said the country had been misled over the cost of Net Zero.

Harry on Talk

NZW’s Harry Wilkinson was on Talk TV to discuss the manifestos.

BBC smears subsistence farmer as ‘denier’

The BBC launched a scurrilous attack on Jusper Machogu, a Kenyan subsistence farmer who campaigns for fossil fuels as a way of improving the lives of rural Africans. The BBC said he was “a champion of climate change denial”.

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