10 June 2024

From the director

‘May you live in interesting times’, it is sometimes wished. I’m not so sure myself. The chaos that is engulfing the western world is nothing if not unnerving. It’s not all - or even mostly - climate related, but the comments reported below from the outgoing head of the German stock exchange show that decarbonisation is appalling on its own. Things are very bad indeed east of the Rhine.

Still, there is every sign that rapid change is impending, or even already upon us. The impact of the European election results is still sinking in, but it appears beyond doubt that electorates across the bloc, and particularly the young, are rejecting the eco-socialist consensus that has prevailed for decades. The right is triumphant and the green blob is slinking away its tail between its legs.

And in Britain, the sudden and rapid rise of Reform, prompted by the return of Nigel Farage, is going to force the media to address climate and energy policy in a way they have managed to avoid doing for years.

So there is hope, but a long hard struggle ahead to get the country back to sanity.

We’re trying out a new format to the newsletter today. We hope this will make the Samizdat a more useful digest of what is going on in the world of energy and climate. Do let us know what you think.

Best wishes

Andrew

Andrew Montford is the director at Net Zero Watch. As always, please don’t reply to this email address, which is not monitored.

UK elections

Labour’s dodgy numbers

In the UK elections, Labour’s policy of decarbonising the grid by 2030 remained under scrutiny. As we reported here at NZW, their insistence that this could produce bill reductions turned out to be based on entirely spurious assumptions.

Whose energy policy holds water?

The unions are also keeping a close watch on Labour’s plan, with the GMB union calling it ‘ridiculous’ and ‘pure zealotry’. With friends like these, eh? The language is striking similar to that used by the Conservatives’ Claire Coutinho, who described Labour’s plans as ‘simply ideological’, and suggested they could lead to blackouts.

However, given that her plan is just the same, but delayed for five years, this suggests a remarkable brass neck on the part of the Secretary of State. We at NZW are not entirely convinced that the gap between ‘ideological’ and ‘measured’ is so short.

Reform surge in the polls

The surge in the polls enjoyed by Reform, the UK’s principal climate and Net-Zero sceptic party has been the most important development of recent days. At the end of this newsletter, you’ll find a link to some thoughts on what this might mean for the green investor community.

European elections

Francis Menton, the Manhattan Contrarian, did an excellent look ahead to the European elections, and his predictions were largely borne out. The right made sweeping gains, with the left, and in particular the Greens, swept aside.

In Germany, the overtly climate sceptic AfD made major inroads, coming second overall. The winners in France and Italy were Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Georgia Meloni’s Fratelli, both of which proclaim themselves in favour of decarbonisation, but going more slowly and with a different approach. Geert Wilders’ sceptic PVV made progress in the Netherlands, and Spain saw both increased vote shares for both the sceptic Vox party and the Net Zero slowcoaches, the Partido Popular.

Across the continent, leaders tried to fall on their swords, with a national elections called in France, the Belgian Prime Minister resigning, and pressure on his German counterpart to follow suit.

Toby Young has a good roundup.

Around the world

The New Zealand government announced that it would overturn a ban on new oil and gas exploration put in place by the previous administration.

Theodor Weimer, the outgoing boss of the German stock exchange launched a devastating critique of the economic policies of economy minister, the Greens’ Robert Habeck. Weimer says the country faces ‘catastrophe’ and that overseas investors feel the country’s approach is ‘insane’ and that Germany is rapidly becoming a developing country.

Renewables

Accountants PwC said that offshore wind in Denmark is now uneconomic, with cost increases of as much as 30% in evidence.

It has been revealed that the government is setting aside £1 billion for spending on technologies to mitigate the effect of windfarms on defence-related early-warning radar.

Etcetera

On factcheckers

Lord Frost took aim at BBC Verify, the corporation’s ‘factchecking’ service, nothing that it tends just to spout establishment views as if they were proven, rather than just one view among many.

BBC Verify fact-checked Nigel Farage’s views on net zero on Friday by reference to the views of the Climate Change Committee. But anyone who knows anything about net zero knows that, while the Committee’s views may be received wisdom amongst much of the establishment, they are definitely controversial. They have to be open to debate. You can’t say that Farage’s views are just comment but the Committee’s views are fact.

On extreme weather

Dr Benny Peiser was in the New York Post, discussing a new paper that finds little evidence of increases in extreme weather.

It turns out that climate alarmists have based their claims on a highly misleading comparison of disaster data of the late 20th and the early 21st centuries.

By their tally, the period from 1980 to 2000 saw about 4,200 natural disasters —with the number increasing sharply, to more than 8,000, during the first 20 years of this century.

This conclusion, however, is fatally flawed: It fails to take into account the huge increase in the global reporting of disasters engendered by the invention and rapid global dissemination of new communication technologies since the 1980s.

From our blog

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