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Coal-Fired Power May See Rebound In U.S. & China In 2021

Power Engineering

Coal-fired power certainly has long-term challenges to viability, but some short-term -and not so short-term- boosts may be on the horizon.

Reuters recently reported that energy security and economic fears is driving the mammoth Chinese energy industry back toward new coal-fired generation projects. One of those includes the $1.9 billion, 4-GW coal power project in Qingyang.

The U.S. electricity sector, meanwhile, may see a near-term, possibly temporary, rise in coal-fired generation. According to the federal Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short Term Energy Outlook, the coal-fired share of U.S. generation mix could return to 24 percent in 2021, the same portion it held in 2019.

The resource fell from 24 percent to an expected 20 percent this year, as cheaper and more efficient gas-fired and renewable generation came online. Next year, though, coal will jump up somewhat while electricity demand declines slightly and the steady increase of gas-fired generation is pushed back for at least one year, according to the EIA.

The Short Team Energy Outlook predicts that total coal production this year will be 525 million short tons, down 26 percent from last year. In 2021, however, the EIA says, coal production should increase to 625 million short tons as power generators respond to anticipated higher natural gas prices.

The government forecasts that gas-fired power plants will account for 34 percent of U.S. electric generation next year, down from this year and 2019.

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