It wasn’t all that long ago when a number of climate scientists were projecting the Earth would soon fall into an almost permanent, increasing El Niño mode, where the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific would always be like what we saw in 1998 – all man-made.
Sea surface temperature chart September 2011. Source: NASA.
Today a number of German-language papers are reporting that Norwegian scientist Tore Furevik of the Bjerknes Centre of the University of Bergen says he expects the opposite to happen at least this year. Furevik says that La Niña may come back for third straight year. “The situation is simlar to the previous year,” he says.
Die Welt here writes that “there are no signs that La Nina is going to disappear anytime soon” and that according to Norwegian experts “it will occur even more strongly than in 2011″.
The Wiener Zeitung of Vienna, Austria adds:
Furevik’s La Niña forecast contradicts the experts’ forecast, where an ensemble of models show the trend towards an El Niño for the 2nd half of the year:
Since about 2005 the PDO phase has gone negative and is projected to stay that way for another 15-25 years – meaning cooler global temperatures.
If Furevik is right, it means that 2012 and the first half of 2013 will end up being cold. That’s bad news for those betting the Earth will warm further this decade. That means that the first quarter of the 2010s decade will be much cooler than the average of the last decade.