Climate alarmists hoping for a super-El Niño this fall and winter to jolt global warming back into high gear again are likely going to be sadly disappointed.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its July monthly El Niño report on July 10. The consensus probability for El Niño conditions in the Northern Hemisphere remained unchanged, but indicators of the strength of the El Niño have weakened considerably since last month. Earth, though, still remains under “El Niño Watch”.
Forecasters now predict that El Niño 2014 “will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter”. The report says, “chances of a strong El Niño are not favored” in the models.
Fears of a catastrophic super-El Niño are gone.
It’s pure speculation and probably will have no effect, but super typhoon Neoguri may have sapped some of the energy from El Niño over the 10 days when it swept across the western equatorial Pacific where El Niños spawn.
Neoguri drew heat from the ocean and intensified east blowing trade winds. Both effects are temporary, but could further weaken El Niño 2014.
As of today, there is no hint of trade wind reversal showing up yet. The reversal of trade winds is one of the main drivers of El Niño that wreaks climate altering havoc. Tropical storm nine is now forming in the western Pacific and further drawing trade winds eastward in the normal counter-El Niño direction.
El Niño strength indicators deteriorate
NOAA El Niño (ENSO) Report/June-July 2014:Upper ocean heat has decreased considerably in the last month
A number of El Niño indicators have declined in the last month.