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The Future Of Energy: A Reality Check

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Blake Clayton, Council on Foreign Relations

Two decades from now, a world with more people and higher average incomes will mean more demand for energy. That shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s more striking is to see where all this growth will happen.

Want to understand the energy challenges the world might face in the future? There are few better places to turn than this year’s BP Energy Outlook to 2030, an annual publication that shows the company’s projections for energy supply and demand over the next two decades. The three graphs below highlight some of the trends likely to define the energy landscape in the years ahead, in BP’s view.

 

Two decades from now, a world with more people and higher average incomes will mean more demand for energy. That shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s more striking is to see where all this growth will happen. In BP’s forecast, low and medium income economies outside the OECD will account for a full 90 percent of population growth between now and 2030, and their GDP will climb much higher. These same countries will also contribute to 90 percent of all the energy demand growth over that time, roaring ahead of the developed world.

 

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