The oncoming La Niña in combination with weakened solar activity and a flip towards the cool phase by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may soon be all working in tandem to set up months of global cooling ahead, which means a likely resumption in the overall global warming pause over the latter part of the current decade.
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Twitter posted a chart from Scripps Oceanography Institute, which does put out some excellent work despite a fair amount climate science activism from a few of its scientists.
According to the Weatherbell meteorologist, Scripps has forecast a La Niña under -2.0 over five consecutive month, as the following chart shows:
While it’s still questionable that the La Niña will arrive already this summer, there is rapidly diminishing doubt that it will be hitting the globe hard by wintertime. Joe adds:
The implication of the SCRIPPS forecast with the ONI is it would more than counter the recent strong el nino, over a multi year period”
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology writes here (April 26, 2016):
Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled significantly in the past fortnight, and are now approaching neutral levels. As temperatures under the surface are below average, more surface water cooling is expected. However the atmosphere is only slowly responding to these changes, and hence the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line continue to fluctuate around El Niño thresholds.
Six of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels within the next month. By September, seven of eight models suggest La Niña thresholds are likely. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.”