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Global Temperatures Keep Falling

Benny Peiser, GWPF & Roy Spencer

According to the latest UAH satellite measurements,  global average lower tropospheric temperature has dropped  to levels that has made September the coolest in 10 years.

In fact, global temperatures are now below they were three years ago, i.e. before a very strong El Nino temporarily drove up global temperatures by 0.6 deg C at their peak in February 2016. Since then, they have dropped by even more (0.7 deg C) and nobody knows whether they may decline any further.

The ongoing downturn illustrates that repeated claims by the UK Met Office and other meteorological organisations that most of the rapid warming in 2015 and early 2016 was primarily due to CO2 emissions rather than a super-strong El Nino were spurious and ill-considered.

Even worse is the recent statement by Elena Manaenkova, the World Meteorological Organisation’s deputy secretary general. Commenting on the current IPCC meeting in South Korea, she claimed that “the sustained warming trend shows no sign of relenting.

In reality, the opposite is happening: global temperatures have been falling sharply since 2016 while the 21st century warming trend is half of what most climate models predicted, slowing rapidly.

The real question is whether or not global average temperature remains at current levels in coming years, i.e. levels we have seen for most of the 21st century, with the exception of two short-lived El Nino events (in 2009/10 and 2015/16). Time will tell.

Dr Roy Spencer has now published the data for September 2018:

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14 deg. C, down a little from +0.19 deg. C in August:

Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed, and so has the distinction between calendar months.

This was the coolest September in the last 10 years in the global average. Full post