Today we have several pieces of good news about our changing climate. It is good news from an amazing source.
The bien pensants at The Guardian are credulous consumers of climate doomster stories. So this science news story by Tamsin Edwards extraordinary: “How soon will the ‘ice apocalypse’ come?” It is a debunking of a long-time favorite story of the coming end times, when Antarctica slides into the sea. See this excerpt of the opening and closing (red emphasis added).
“An emotive article on the ‘ice apocalypse’ by Eric Holthaus describes a terrifying vision of catastrophic sea level rise this century caused by climate change and the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet. But how likely is this – and how soon could such a future be here? …
“I was particularly concerned about some of the implied time scales and impacts. That ‘slowly burying every shoreline …creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees …could play out in a mere 20 to 50 years’ (it could begin then, but would take far longer). That ‘the full 11 feet’ could be unlocked by 2100 (Rob and Dave predicted the middle of next century). That cities will be ‘wiped off the map’ (we will adapt, because the costs of protecting coastlines are predicted to be far less than those of flooding). We absolutely should be concerned about climate risks, and reduce them. But black-and-white thinking and over-simplification don’t help with risk management, they hinder.
“Is ‘the entire scientific community [in] emergency mode’? We are cautious, and trying to learn more. Climate prediction is a strange game. It takes decades to test our predictions, so society must make decisions with the best evidence but always under uncertainty. I understand why a US-based climate scientist would feel particularly pessimistic. But we have to take care not to talk about the apocalypse as if it were inevitable.”
What does this mean?
For three decades the Left has given confident predictions increasingly dire scenarios.
The latest: the end of humanity and devastation of the Earth — predictions with little support in the peer-reviewed literature or work of the IPCC. For example, the 10 July 2017 issue of NY Magazine featured “Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells — “Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.” This was the most-read article it its history.
Equally exciting is “Will humans be extinct by 2026?” at Arctic News, and “Are we headed for near-term human extinction?” by Zach Ruiter at Toronto Now — “Recent studies suggest it is irresponsible to rule out the possibility after last week’s “warning to humanity” from more than 15,000 climate change scientists.”
Most exciting is journalist Peter Brannen’s new book, The Ends of the World: Volcanic Apocalypses, Lethal Oceans, and Our Quest to Understand Earth’s Past Mass Extinctions (see this excerpt in The Guardian).
This campaign to influence US public policy — the largest in our history — has been almost totally ineffective. Has the Left realized this and returned to relying on science to inform to public — rather than exaggerations and partial truths to terrify people? That would mean using the work of the IPCC and major climate agencies (rather than cherry-picking bits and pieces), and above all looking at the full range of scenarios used in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.
That would be a radical change from their past.