James Hansen Admits Global Warming Slowing, Falling Below IPCC Projections

Is James Hansen becoming a skeptic of the IPCC?

A paper published today by James Hansen has some startling admissions, including

* the effect [forcing] of man-made greenhouse gas emissions has fallen below IPCC projections, despite an increase in man-made CO2 emissions exceeding IPCC projections

* the growth rate of the greenhouse gas forcing has “remained below the peak values reached in the 1970s and early 1980s, has been relatively stable for about 20 years, and is falling below IPCC (2001) scenarios (figure 5).”

* the airborne fraction of CO2 [the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2 increase to fossil fuel CO2 emissions] has decreased over the past 50 years [figure 3], especially after the year 2000

* Hansen believes the explanation for this conundrum is CO2 fertilization of the biosphere from “the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal.”

* “the surge of fossil fuel emissions, especially from coal burning, along with the increasing atmospheric CO2 level is ‘fertilizing’ the biosphere, and thus limiting the growth of atmospheric CO2.”

* “the rate of global warming seems to be less this decade than it has been during the prior quarter century”

According to “coal death train” Hansen,

“However, it is the dependence of the airborne fraction on fossil fuel emission rate that makes the post-2000 downturn of the airborne fraction particularly striking. The change of emission rate in 2000 from 1.5% yr-1 to 3.1% yr-1 (figure 1), other things being equal, would have caused a sharp increase of the airborne fraction (the simple reason being that a rapid source increase provides less time for carbon to be moved downward out of the ocean’s upper layers).

We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1).

We suggest that the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal, since 2000 is a basic cause of the large increase of carbon uptake by the combined terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks. One mechanism by which fossil fuel emissions increase carbon uptake is by fertilizing the biosphere via provision of nutrients essential for tissue building, especially nitrogen, which plays a critical role in controlling net primary productivity and is limited in many ecosystems.”

So is the new data we present here good news or bad news, and how does it alter the ‘Faustian bargain’? At first glance there seems to be some good news. First, if our interpretation of the data is correct, the surge of fossil fuel emissions, especially from coal burning, along with the increasing atmospheric CO₂ level is ‘fertilizing’ the biosphere, and thus limiting the growth of atmospheric CO₂. Also, despite the absence of accurate global aerosol measurements, it seems that the aerosol cooling effect is probably increasing based on evidence of aerosol increases in the Far East and increasing ‘background’ stratospheric aerosols.

Both effects work to limit global warming and thus help explain why the rate of global warming seems to be less this decade than it has been during the prior quarter century.”

CLIMATE FORCING GROWTH RATES: DOUBLING DOWN ON OUR FAUSTIAN BARGAIN

 

 

 

 OPEN ACCESS

This is a Perspective for the article 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044035

Rahmstorf et al ‘s (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing.

Annual fossil fuel CO₂ emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr^-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) ‘Marker’ scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions.

Figure 1. CO₂ annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012).

The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO₂ (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr^-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr^-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO₂ measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al(1973).

Figure 2. Annual increase of CO₂ based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO₂change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO₂ amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global).

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