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Met Office Arctic Ice Forecast Hopelessly Wrong

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Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That

Each year the Sea Ice Prediction Network collect forecasts for ice extent from a variety of sources. The UK Met Office’s model based forecast was 4.1 million sq km, so they were only 27% out.

 image

http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/june

NSIDC have released the Arctic sea ice extent data for September, and the average for the month is 5.210 million sq km.

Each year the Sea Ice Prediction Network collect forecasts for ice extent from a variety of sources. The UK Met Office’s model based forecast was 4.1 million sq km, so they were only 27% out!

Their paper states:

Using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast systems we have generated a model based mean September sea ice extent outlook of 4.1 million sq km. 

which should gives us all a huge amount of confidence in their models.

Last year, of course, their forecast was even further off line, 3.360 million sq km against an outturn of 5.244.

Figure 1 shows the recovery of sea ice in the last two years, both back close to 2005 levels.

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ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

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