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Met Office Fiasco: Global Temperature Forecast For 2014 – A Staggering Failure

Pierre Gosselin, NoTricksZone

Using sophisticated computer models, the Met Office authors forecasted the temperature development from 2004 to 2014. Boy, did they fail.

Frank Bosse at Die kalte Sonne here puts the spotlight on a global warming forecast published by British MetOffice scientists in 2007. It appeared in Science Mag here.

The peer-reviewed paper was authored by Doug M. Smith and colleagues under the title: “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model“.

Using sophisticated methods, the target of the paper was to forecast the temperature development from 2004 to 2014 while taking the internal variability into account.

The claims made in Smith’s study are loud and clear (my emphasis):

…predict further warming during the coming decade, with the year 2014 predicted to be 0.30° ± 0.21°C [5 to 95% confidence interval (CI)] warmer than the observed value for 2004. Furthermore, at least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to be warmer than 1998, the warmest year currently on record.“

The first chart shows their forecast:

Figure 1: Decadal forecast by Smith et al. (2007) for 2004 to 2014 (Source: Figure 4 of the a.m. paper).

Now that it’s 2014 and the observed data are in, we can compare to see how Smith et al did with their forecast. Boy, did they fail!

The following chart shows the actual result of the Smith et al forecast, showing the real observations since 1998:


Figure 2: Observed temperature development as to the MetOffice’s own data HadCRUT4 compared to the claims made in the Smith et al paper. The lower back line shows the linear trend of the observed results. The pink lines show the confidence range. The red line shows the linear trend of Smith et al. Chart modified from DkS

Clearly we see that the MetOffice observations show a cooling of 0.014°C over the 2004-2014 decade and is below even the forecast lower confidence limit. Moreover not a single year was warmer than 1998, despite having predicted at least three would be warmer.

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