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Most Sea Level Modellers Model Catastrophes, Expert Survey Reveals

AZO Clean Tech News

According to the predictions of a new international study headed by the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, the faster melting of polar ice sheets than projected earlier may lead to a nearly 1.3 m rise in the ocean levels by 2100.

Icebergs in Ilulissat Icefjord, Greenland. The melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica can have a devastating impact on the world. Image Credit: Copyright—Mark Garten/UN Photo.

The new study was published recently in Climate and Atmospheric Science and predicts sea-level rise considerably higher than those projected by the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2014 Fifth Assessment Report, and also in a special report on oceans and the cryosphere published in September 2019.

The researchers used a survey of opinions offered by 106 experts to estimate global mean sea-level variations under low- and high-emission conditions. Answers to open-ended questions in the survey imply that elevations in upper-end estimates emerged from the latest influential studies on the effect of the instability of marine ice-cliff on meltwater contribution to global mean sea-level rise.

According to Benjamin Horton, acting chair of NTU’s Asian School of the Environment and lead author of the study, under a high-emission condition, with a warming of 4.5 °C, the study predicts an increase of up to 1.3 m by 2100 and up to 5.6 m by 2300.

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