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New Paper: Climate Models Unable To Simulate Holocene Climate Optimum & Subsequent Cooling

The Hockey Schtick

A paper under discussion for Climate of the Past finds climate models are unable to simulate the mid-Holocene Climate Optimum from ~4-6 thousand years ago when global temperatures were naturally 2-3C higher than the present. The models are also unable to simulate the gradual cooling from the Holocene Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age and pre-industrial temperatures.

According to the authors,

“The model does not capture the mid-Holocene “thermal maximum” and gradual cooling to pre-industrial global temperature found in the data.”

If climate models are unable to simulate the Holocene Climate Optimum, Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages Cold Period, Medieval Warm Period, and little Little Ice Age over the past 4,000 years, how can they possibly be relied upon to simulate the Current Warm Period or to distinguish natural variability from anthropogenic?

Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 2925-2978, 2014

Global climate simulations at 3000 year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model

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