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New Study: Increased CO2 And Global Warming Will Increase Grain Production

A paper published today in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology finds that “fertilization effects” on grain yields due to “elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures.” The authors note, “There is a high probability of …(increasing) changes in yield and water use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios… (with)   consideration of CO2 fertilization effects” and “Thefindings could be critical for climate change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.”


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Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2012 ; e-View

Probabilistic change of wheat productivity and water use in China for global mean temperature changes of 1, 2, and 3°C

Yujie Liu and Fulu Tao*

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China1
Abstract
Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide. However, uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961–1990 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) – Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Results show that because of temperature increase, projected wheat growing periods for GMT changes of 1, 2 and 3°C would shorten with an averaged median values 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.