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Prof. Murry Salby: Climate “Model World” Diverges Starkly From “Real World”

Pierre Goslin, No Tricks Zone

Die kalte Sonne website here has just posted the video presentation of Murry Salby in Hamburg in April… Most of the presentation is very mathematical and technical. But the last 10 minutes sums everything up very nicely for the laypersons.

Die kalte Sonne writes:

Prof. Murry Salby, climate scientist at Macquarie University of Sydney, made a presentation in Hamburg on April 18th as part of a European tour. Prof. Salby is author of the textbook Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate (Cambridge University Press) and Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics (Academic Press) and is renowned worldwide as an astrophysicist. He recently caused excitement with new findings on the relationship of the 12C- and 13C isotopes and the development of CO2-concentration. From the findings he concluded that the anthropogenic emissions only had a slight impact on the global CO2-concentrations. They are are mainly a consequence of temperature changes. This relationship is known up to now only from the warming phases after the last ice ages. Prof. Salby extends this relationship to our current climate development.

The video recording of the presentation, which was organised by the host Helmut Schmidt University, is now available at Youtube (above).”

Near the end (1:02:50) Salby on CO2 and temperature:

Their divergence over the last decade and a half is now unequivocal. In the models global temperature tracks CO2 almost perfectly. In the real world it clearly doesn’t.”

Salby then presents two charts for comparison, which I’ve arranged side-by-side: the model world vs real world:

Salby realworld vs model world

Model world (left) vs real world (right). Graphics from Murry Salby presentation.

1:04:05 mark he sums it up neatly:

CO2 then evolves not like temperature, as it does in the model, but like the integral of temperature. In dotted blue is the integral of observed temperature. It closely tracks observed CO2 – even after the 1990s when the observed record of CO2 and temperature clearly diverged. If CO2 tracks the integral of temperature, which it clearly does, it cannot track temperature, which it clearly doesn’t.

In the model, CO2 and temperature are related directly. In the real world they are also related, but differently. The distinctly different relationship between CO2 and global temperature represents a fundamental difference in the global energy balance between its evolution in the model world and the real world. If the global energy balance is wrong, everything else is window dressing.” 

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