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RSS Satellite Data Close To 30-Year Average

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Paul Homewood, Not a Lot Of People Know That

It is clear that there is nothing unusual about current global temperatures.

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I did a quick post yesterday on the May numbers on RSS [satellite data], which fell sharply to 0.139C. The RSS figures are anomalies from the 1979-98 baseline, and I pointed out that, against a baseline of 1981-2010, current temperatures are now only 0.039C higher.

I also mentioned that the 1981-2010 average had been artificially depressed by the two eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991.

The above graph illustrates the effect these eruptions had. It is also worth pointing out that El Chichon coincided with the large El Nino of 1982/3. A paper by Alan Robock found :-

The eruption took place just as the largest El Nino of the century so far was beginning. (In fact the volcanic cloud in the stratosphere fooled the satellite sensors which monitor ocean temperatures into thinking ocean temperatures were normal, whereas they had warmed substantially. Thus, scientists were not aware of the El Nino until months after it had started.

As the MEI graph below shows, the 1982 El Nino was comparable to the 1998 one. Therefore, without the El Chichon eruption, the temperatures for 1982 & 83 would have been much higher than average.

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Take the two volcanoes out of the equation, and it is clear that there is nothing unusual about current temperatures.

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