In a new paper published by the Russian Academy of Sciences, seven senior scientists analysed the monthly average and annual average data of charged particle fluxes in the lower atmosphere, concluding that “a rise in the charged particle flux in the lower atmosphere in the next few years” would lead to “a decrease in the global temperature of the near-surface air layer.”
One of the most important problems facing humanity is finding the physical mechanism responsible for global climate change, particularly global warming on the Earth. Figure 1 presents the data on changes ΔT in the monthly average values of global temperature (averaged over the globe) in the near-surface air layer [1, 2]. The ΔТ values, shown as the fine curve, are counted from the average value of the global temperature acquired over the period 1901–2000. It can be seen that the changes in the ΔT values are irregular in character. A more or less smooth increase in temperature has been observed from around 1970 to the present. The thick curve represents calculations based on a spectral analysis of the monthly average data on ΔT for the period 1880–early 2016. The calculations show that the experimental data contain four main periodic components. Their characteristics (amplitude А in relative units; phase Ф and period P in years) are А1 = 0.406, Ф1 = 125.81, P1 = 204.57; А2 = 0.218, Ф2 = 31.02, P2 = 69.30; А3 = 0.079, Ф3 = 17.14, P3 = 34.58; and А4 = 0.088, Ф4 = 10.48, P4 = 22.61. The amplitudes of other spectral components with periods of less than 22 years are negligible. Summation of these periodicities for the future (after 2015) allows us to forecast the next few decades. The solid heavy line in Fig. 1 shows that cooling (a drop in ΔTvalues) is expected in the next few decades. The first harmonic А1 has the highest uncertainty in the considered method, due to the shortness of the series of ΔT values. […]
Our results could be connected with the mechanism of charged particle fluxes influencing the Earth’s climate; it includes, first of all, the effect charged particles have on the accelerated formation of centers of water vapor condensation, and thus on the increase in global cloud cover. The total cloud cover is directly connected with the global temperature of the nearsurface air layer. This mechanism of the connection between the global temperature of the near-surface air layer and the charged particle flux will be tested in the next 2–3 years. The Solar System is now in the positive phase of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. This phase is being characterized by a rather fast recovery (rise) of the cosmic ray flux after the maximum solar activity of 2014. If there is a rise in the charged particle flux in the lower atmosphere in the next few years, there will have to be a drop in ΔT, i.e. a decrease in the global temperature of the near-surface air layer.