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Sir John Beddington Is Wrong About UK Temperature Record

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Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That

In both winter and summer, year on year variations in recent years are pretty normal, or even low, when compared with the historical record.

UK Chief Scientist, Sir John Beddington, has claimed in a recent interview that:-

“The variation in the temperature or rainfall, which Britain has been experiencing lately, is double the average rate”.

I have already shown that Met Office data does not bear out his claims regarding rainfall, but what about temperatures? Using the Central England Temperature Series, I have used the same methodology as I did with rainfall to check Beddington’s claims.

Just to recap, I have calculated the year on year changes for mean temperatures, then converted any negative values to positive . (This stops negative changes from cancelling out positive ones). Finally I have added a 10 year running average. Figure 1 shows the results.

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Figure 1

There has only been one year on year change of note in recent years, when temperatures bounced back in 2011 from the cold year before. But this change is dwarfed by some of the changes in earlier decades and centuries.. More importantly, the 10 year average is low by comparison with much of the earlier record. This suggests that temperatures in the last decade or so have been much less volatile.

Of course, annual numbers may cover up large fluctuations during the year. For instance, a cold winter and hot summer would cancel out, leaving an annual average temperature that looked “normal”. So, let’s extend the exercise to winter and summer seasonal temperatures, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.

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Figure 2

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Figure 3

In both winter and summer, year on year variations in recent years are pretty normal, or even low, when compared with the historical record.

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