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The BBC & The Doom-Mongers: “Will Polar Bears Become Extinct?”

Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science

Yesterday, the BBC published a story that gave the two most alarmist polar bear researchers on the planet a forum to market their ‘polar bears are doomed’ message. This time the desperation shows: watch how these biologists move the goal-posts, make claims so misleading they border on lies, and pretend they don’t have big, big trouble with their predictive models.

Amstrup_only solution_with 2 cubs_Oct 8 2014

Amstrup photo that accompanied an interview last month.

SOME HIGHTLIGHTS FROM  “Will polar bears become extinct?” – Amstrup has a big problem — experts say his model is lousy science:

“The best estimates we’ve got indicate that we’ll probably lose somewhere around two-thirds of the world’s bears somewhere around mid-century, just based on the simple fact that we’re losing sea ice,” says Andrew Derocher, a professor of biological sciences at the University of Alberta and past chair of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group.” [my bold]

The “best estimates” Derocher refers to are results of a model that depended on one man’s opinion (Steven Amstrup’s) to provide most of the “facts” feed into the computer. Amstrup’s model may be the best they’ve got but IUCN experts say it was bad science and the PBSG won’t get away with using it again.

Full story

see also: Susan Crockford: Healthy Polar Bears, Less Than Healthy Science