Skip to content

Nic Lewis is best known to the sceptic blogosphere as one of the co-authors of the O’Donnell et al paper, which found significant flaws in Steig’s paper on Antarctic warming. Lewis has just published an extremely important article about Forest et al 2006, one of the key climate sensitivity papers shown in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Forest et al found a climate sensitivity of 3°C/doubling, rather higher than many other studies. However, although his research has been hampered by the fact that Forest appears to have lost the raw data (!), Lewis has concluded that there must have been a misprocessing of the figures and that the correct figure for climate sensitivity would be only 1°C/doubling.

If I am right, then correct processing of the data used in Forest 2006 would lead to the conclusion that equilibrium climate sensitivity (to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere) is close to 1°C, not 3°C, implying that likely future warming has been grossly overestimated by the IPCC.

It is hard to overstate how important this finding is, if correct.

Read the whole thing.

Bishop Hill, 25 June 2012