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The GWPF 2021 Temperature Prediction Competition

GWPF 2021 Temperature Prediction Competition

Place your bets!

With the 2020 results now out, we move on to the 2021 competition, your chance to win a bottle of whisky and your choice of a book from the GWPF range. What’s not to like?

It’s all change this year though, with the Met Office moving on from HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5, their latest whizz-bang (with new improved warm adjustments) temperature data set, with new sources of warming in places you never even knew existed. That means, for this year’s competition, we’re going to be inviting predictions of the HadCRUT5 average.

That means we have a new baseline. The Met Office tell us that the temperature in 2020 in the new series was 1.28±0.08°C above preindustrial, but they reckon on a bit of a cooling this year, with their central estimate for 2021 being 1.03±0.12°C.

What do you reckon the outturn will be? All you you have to do is to is give us your prediction in the form below. Good luck!

In the event of a tie, we’ll decide the final winner by drawing names out of a hat.