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The Met Office’s New Junk Climate Projections

Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That

The Met Office’s UK Climate Projections bear absolutely no resemblance to what has actually been happening.


The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century has been launched today by Environment Secretary Michael Gove.

The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:

  • UK’s most comprehensive projections of climate change 
  • Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
  • Cutting-edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future

Using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:

  • Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
  • The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
  • Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
  • Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter

Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline. Even in the low emission scenario, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3 °C higher by the end of the century.

Full Met Office press release


The projections are very little changed from the 2009 versions, although the forecast ranges seem to be slightly smaller. Indeed, the Met Office actually point out that UKPC18 is broadly consistent with UKPC09.

So let’s look at those four highlighted predictions:

  • Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer

This prediction bears absolutely no resemblance to what has actually been happening:


Average summer temperatures are less than a degree higher than in the 1930s. Moreover they have not increased since 2003.

As for average winter temperatures, they are no higher now than in the 1920s, and have been falling since the 2009 projections were made:


There is nothing in the actual data to support either of the Met Office’s projections.

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