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The National Trust’s Climate Myths

Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That

Just every claim made in the National Trust’s 2016 review of UK weather is either wrong or cherry picked:

1) Winters have become milder

FACT –Since 2006 five winters have been colder than the 1981-2010 mean.

Although last winter was the warmest since 1910, no other one since 2006 has been in any way unusual.

2) Winters have become often wetter

FACT – The winter of 2013/14 was exceptionally wet, but precipitation was still only 8mm greater than 1914/15.

Clearly there is no connection with a warmer climate.

Other than that, since 2006 five winters have been drier than average.

Clustering of wet winters is not uncommon, for instance 1914/15 to 1915/16, and 1993/4 to 1994/5.

3) 2010/11 was a traditional winter

FACT – A ridiculous statement.

Not only was it much colder and drier than average, December 2010 was by far the coldest on record.

4) Last December was the mildest on record

FACT – This is pure cherry picking. The mild weather in December 2015 had no more significance than the cold of 2010.


5) Children in the south now rarely play in snow.

FACT – Neither did they in the 1970s and 80s.



6) Spring has jumped the gun and come earlier

FACT – Since 2006, temperatures in March have been below average on five occasions.

March 2013 was the second coldest on record, behind 1962.

The warmest March weather came in 1938 and 1957.


7) The UK last enjoyed a good summer back in 2006.  Since then, we have at best experienced blemished summers, with spells of fine weather ending abruptly as the jet stream suddenly jumped.

FACT – Hot summers have always been the exception to the rule in England.

8) Climate change seems to be narrowing the gulf between our winters and summers.

FACT – The difference between winter and summer temperatures has remained stable since 1911, if anything slightly increasing.


Matthew Oates is apparently a nature expert, and I am sure he fully understands the impact of weather on nature.

Unfortunately, he clearly understands little about climate.

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