American climate scientists must improve their climate models is one of the key messages in a recent memo issued by the Trump Administration.
Each summer the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Science and Technology Policy issue areas that the US Government would like to emphasis in the following year.
The memo is intended to communicate what the government wants and influence what government agency heads request leading up to the president submitting his budget to Congress in February.
The memo is co-signed by Dr Kelvin K Droegemeier took up the roll of Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy earlier this year. He is a former meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma. It is the first time the topic has been mentioned in these memos.
“Knowing the extent to which components of the Earth system are practicably predictable -from individual thunderstorms to long-term global change-is vitally important for physical understanding of the Earth system, assessing the value of prediction results, guiding Federal investments, developing effective policy, and improving predictive skill. Departments and agencies should prioritize R&D that helps quantify Earth system predictability across multiple phenomena, time, and space scales.”
The memo also contains an implied criticism that the federal scientific community have not effectively communicated the limitations and uncertainties is using climate models for prediction.
“Additionally, agencies should emphasize how measures of and limits to predictability, both theoretical and actual, can inform a wide array of stakeholders. They also should explore the application of AI and adaptive observing systems to enhance predictive skill, along with strategies for obtaining substantial improvements in computational model performance and spatial resolution across all scales.”
Concerning the oceans Droegemeirer adds,
Departments and agencies should prioritize new and emerging technologies and collaborative approaches to efficiently map, explore, and characterize the resources of the U.S. exclusive economic zone. Departments and agencies should also focus on processing and making publically available data that characterize natural resources and human activities and on R&D.”
Heads of the US scientific agencies and their subservient administrations such as NASA and NOAA have been told there is no extra money for this so they will have to take money away from other areas.