The global supply of unconventional energy sources will triple by 2030 compared with 2011levels, which will have a major impact on the international energy market and benefit China, BPPlc said in an outlook released in Beijing on Thursday.
A natural gas facility in Puyang, Henan province. China is expected tobenefit from US exports of shale oil and shale gas due to their impact onglobal energy prices. Hu Qingming / For China Daily
Global energy demand will rise 36 percent by 2030 compared with 2011 with almost all of the growth coming from emerging economies, it added.
“Unconventional sources – shale gas and light oil together with heavy oil and biofuels – will play an increasingly important role and transform the energy balance of the United States,” said Zhang Chi, head of the Asian economics department at BP.
Growing production from unconventional sources is expected to contribute more than 70percent of the net growth of the global oil supply by 2030.
Increasing production and weaker demand will result in the US being 99 percent self-sufficient in net energy by 2030, while it was only 70 percent self-sufficient in 2005.
And although the US is the biggest beneficiary of the shale gas “revolution”, China will benefit from it to some extent, experts said.
Exports of US shale oil and shale gas will help cap international oil prices, which is good news for oil importers, said David Robinson, senior research fellow with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
He told China Daily on Thursday that because the geological conditions of US shale gas blocks are favorable, shale gas companies there will be able to adjust their production plans according to international crude oil price fluctuations.
Christopher Allsopp, director of the institute, said, “The increasing shale gas supply from the US cannot promise cheap energy, but it has its impact on the natural gas pricing mechanism.”
Natural gas prices in Asia are now linked to international crude oil prices, but that link is set to blur as natural gas is more likely to be priced, as in other markets, on supply and demand, he said.
For China, the increasing output of US shale gas has given the country a bigger say during talks with Russian natural gas suppliers, said Keun-Wook Paik, another senior research fellow at the institute.